German Employer DHL based in Wilmington, Ohio will be cutting 8000 more Ohioan jobs as they pull out of Domestic American delivery services. DHL a delivery company same as UPS and Federal Express will cut domestic delivery service to America and pull out operations all together. DHL will cut over 8000 employees here in Ohio further devastating our already overwhelmed unemployed economy here in Ohio, whose next in Ohio? The federal Government has stepped in with a few million dollars to help soften the blow for soon to be laid off Ohio DHL workers and their family members, The Money is not to help save DHL from leaving; but instead to help educate and retrain the soon to be unemployed workers soon losing their jobs find new ones. My question is where are the new jobs these retrained Ohioans going to be found?
Ignore the Stock Market Until February The current volatility is less about fundamentals than forced selling.
Down in the morning, up in the afternoon. Or is it the other way around? The topsy-turvy stock market is tough to read.
In the last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has briefly been over 13,000 and below 8,000. The past month has felt like the Cyclone roller coaster on Brooklyn's Coney Island -- lots of ups and downs, the whole rickety thing feeling like it's going to crash at any minute.
Great investors are taught to listen to the market. Each tick of the tape has something to say about expectations for growth, inflation, policy changes and looming recessions. The stock market is like a giant mass of pulsing plasma doing price discovery and a game of hot potato, getting stocks into the correct hands with the right risk profile. It's way too big for any one person to manipulate, let alone touch directly. Instead, millions of us provide input with our buying and selling decisions.
When it's at its most efficient, with buyers and sellers neatly matched up at the right price, it's a pretty good predictor. The Crash of 1929 announced a recession, and the wake-up call unheeded might have caused many of the bad policies leading to the Great Depression. The Crash of 1987? Not so much.
You see, the market is a great manipulator. In September, the Dow dropped 700 points intraday after the House of Representatives voted down the Treasury's TARP bank-rescue bill. Spooked, the House passed the bill the next week. Or how about this? The Dow was up 300 points on Election Day applauding an Obama victory and then down 1,600 points since.
The market can also be a bold-faced liar. On Jan. 22, the Fed announced an emergency 75-basis-point rate cut in response to huge drops in European markets. A few days later, it came out that a rogue trader at Société Générale lost them $7 billion and the bank was unwinding his positions. Oops.
So which is it now: an efficient mechanism or a manipulating liar? Should you listen to it warning of doom or anticipating renewal? I'd say stick wax in your ears and don't listen to the market until February.
Don't get me wrong. The freezing of the credit markets is wreaking havoc on the world economy. Corporate profits are dropping. Central banks are fighting off deflation and may not turn off the spigots fast enough -- which could ignite runaway inflation. But because of the credit mess, I am convinced the stock market is at its least efficient today. Don't read too much into any move. Here are the five biggest dislocations taking place:
- Tax-loss selling: Whenever you have a loss in a stock -- and who doesn't -- it's always tax smart to sell it, take a tax loss and either buy something similar or wait 30 days and buy the original one back. December can be an ugly month of indiscriminate selling. The December effect will be huge this year.
- Mutual-fund redemptions: Mutual funds are also dumped for tax losses. When the stock market is down in the morning, it's usually because of mutual-fund redemptions.
Fidelity's giant Magellan fund, down 56%, is one of many in the $6 trillion stock-fund business having an awful year. As investors call or click to get out of these funds, Fidelity and the others have to unload shares the next morning to raise cash. This forced-selling overwhelms the system. New York Stock Exchange specialists, who are supposed to maintain an orderly market, stop buying and back away. You get huge drops, which can unnerve even more investors and cause them to redeem.
- Mutual fund cap-gain distributions: To make matters worse, in December mutual funds do capital-gains distributions. In a down year like 2008, you would think there are no taxes to pay. Think again. Legg Mason's Value Trust, run by Bill Miller, outperformed the market for 15 years by buying many "unvalue" names like Amazon. As investors redeem, he is forced to sell many of these stocks originally purchased at very low prices, triggering huge capital gains in a year his fund is down 62%. You can almost guarantee investors also will sell more of these funds to pay their unexpected tax bill.
- Hedge-fund redemptions: Instead of overnight selling like mutual funds, hedge funds typically require 45 days' notice for investors to get out of a fund. They've been furiously selling since September to raise cash to pay investors. This usually shows up as a set of stocks that just go down and down and down with no obvious explanation.
Rubbing salt in hedge-fund wounds is the fact that Lehman Brothers was a prime broker to many hedge funds, holding their shares. While Lehman's bankruptcy was not a problem in the U.S., in England the policy is to freeze accounts until the mess can be sorted out. There are billions in assets locked in this bankruptcy, and hedge funds are forced to sell positions in the U.S. and elsewhere to raise cash, exacerbating the downside here. By the way, when hedge funds are down for the year, they work practically for free until they make up the loss. We'll see hedge funds close and stocks liquidated as -- no surprise -- hedge-fund managers like to get paid.
- Margin calls: Whenever stocks go down sharply, you quickly find who owns them with debt. We have seen spectacular margin calls, a requirement for more capital to cover share losses. Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon unloaded 33 million shares to cover losses. Viacom CEO Sumner Redstone had a forced sale of $400 million in Viacom and CBS shares because of a margin call on other stocks. You can bet many not-so-public margin calls are behind many huge price drops. These usually take place in the last 30 minutes of trading.
So won't January be alright once these dislocations weighing on the market are lifted? The January effect is supposed to be positive.
Well, often money managers are fired at the end of disastrous years. A new manager comes in, looks at the existing positions and dumps them all and remakes the portfolio with new stocks that he likes, thus generating more selling. My favorite Wall Street adage suggests that the stock market trades to inflict the maximum amount of pain. Remember, you can only ignore the stock market for so long. Once everyone thinks it can only go down . . . it might go up.
I was watching the 19 evening news today when they showed the last standing speech of the now felony convicted Alaskan Senator “Stevens” during his Senate farewell speech to all his colleagues from office. What really got to me was not so much this guy’s farewell speech as one the longest running Senators who had served the Senate, but the standing ovation and continuous applause Now Ex- Senator Stevens received from all current and remaining senate members filling the Senatorial chamber. I don’t care what side of the bench this now convicted criminal is on; Republican or Democrat, It does not matter to me! Stevens acted on his own as a individual in a long ongoing crime of corruption by taking bribes over many years from Alaskan Construction Contractors doing work on his Posh personal Alaskan Home in exchange for State contruction contracts while serving as Alaskan Senator in office as one if not the longest running Senator in office to date. What upset me the most was not only the standing ovation the still remaining standing Senate members gave after Stevens’ farewell speech. But Stevens, by also losing his re-election due to his Felony conviction and soon to serve Federal Jail sentence, "saved" those very same Senate colleagues now applauding his farewell speech and long Service in office as Senator from the need of "Embaressment" of voting to“expell” once long term now Ex- Senator Stevens from his Senate seat due to his current convictions of crimes during office as Alaskan Senator. Just goes to show you how blind our current remianing Senate is when it comes to morals of "Applauding" the speech and service of now disgraced convicted criminals in office such as now EX- Senator Stevens. Would that have been me attending this one meeting if I were a Senator, I certainly would have not only left my seat empty but certainly would not have stood up and applauded for this guys service as many did today for the Nation to see on TV. What is going on with our Senate today?
I received a letter from one of my credit card companies yesterday that stated due to the current economic situation they will be raising one of my credit cards interest rates by 4% beginning the first of January. I called them up and asked them why? I have nearly perfect credit with a fico score of no less than 760 from all three credit reporting agencies; “never” in my life have I ever missed any payments on any loans or credit bills. And rarely even use this card. (Discover Card) I have no balance at the moment and never went over $500.00 on a card with a $5,000 dollar limit in the 6 or so years I had it. They claim it was a business decision based on the current economy, I told them to cancel it based on their poor Business practices! If they think they can milk me because I pay all of my bills onetime while they work with those who do not, they have another thing coming! I only pray they are not one of the banks getting any handouts from this bull bailout with any of my tax dollars and end up going belly up over their greed. Screw them!
I was watching the nightly news today at 6:30 pm on 19 when they mentioned Congress was working on a second American stimulus package valued between 100 and 300 billion dollars to help once again jump start our economy. They said they would explain after the commercial return but then I was side tracked when my wife came home and started talking about something I also forgot, Does anyone have any information on what I missed and how much this Check will be valued for this time around and when?
So, please explain why Sara Palin, self-proclaimed “hockey mom” isn’t encouraging Bristol and Levi to stay in school– and play hockey? She doesn’t want to be a Hockey Mother-in-Law? Would she fly back for those tournament games?
It’s the kids’ senior year, and they’ve “DROPPED OUT”. Why is it that they can’t attend school with their friends and play hockey when the baby won’t be here until after the end of 1st semester?
Yet, Palin missed a day or two of work having her pre-term special needs baby, but Bristol can’t go back for her senior year of high school? Palin can have 5 kids AND be the VP, but Bristol and Levi can’t go to school? Levi made a statement today claiming he needs a job to pay for the baby; so I’m going drilling instead of finishing school and Bristol has no plans as of yet but supports my decision to drop out my senior year. Bristol will be dropping out also to prepare for the baby and going north with me while I’ll drill and she takes care of our baby.
Levi was asked what his thoughts where on Obama and the election his new soon to be mother in law is fighting so hard for these past few weeks? Levi replied, I think Obama is a cool guy a good man and a good candidate. Levi was asked agian what he thought of Sara Palin? Levi replied I hope she wins it seems as if the pressure of this election is starting to take it's toll.
If you look at all current electoral votes, Obama is the clear winner, regardless of how America votes. If the election was to be held today Obama may lose the election based on American votes, but will off-set those votes and win the election by a landslide when the electoral votes trump American voters. This happened with Kerry and bush when Kerry seemed to be winning the American votes early on but lost to the electoral votes in favor of Bush later in the election. At the moment, Obama has 196 solid electoral votes with 68 electoral votes leaning giving Obama a total of 264 current electoral votes with 100 electoral votes still floating as undecided; leaving Obama 0nly 6 electoral vote shy of winning this election. McCain has 158 solid electoral votes with 16 electoral votes leaning giving McCain a total of 174 electoral votes with 100 floating as undecided. the clear winner of the election needs 270 electoral votes to take the election and become President. Obama is just 6 electoral votes away to win this election while McCain needs 98 more electoral votes. Remember however there is only 100 electoral votes left up for grabs. This means if the election would be held today, and assuming McCain took all of the 100 electoral votes remaining up for grabs, He would still fall short by 2 electoral votes against Obama. Latest statistics show the remaining 100 floating electoral votes still left undecided will most likely be split 50/50 between the two candidates leaving McCain left far behind in the 270 electoral votes needed to win this election. In addition, McCain’s falling numbers in current polls may suggest the remaining100 electoral votes may be split as much as 65/35 in favor of Obama giving Obama the clear advantage of winning this election over McCain if the election was to be held today or nothing changes between candidates campaign strategies that would dramatically change the already decided electoral votes decisions in their current states vote/s
Source and facts can be found on the link provided. or any other current or up to date Electoral vote documentation/s information.
http://www.polltrack.com/presidential?gclid=CM_1o9
7wmpYCFQXGsgodpQ676A
Note; these figures are expect to fluctuate up and down by an average of 10 electoral votes going either way. However, even with the fluctuation factor provided still shows McCain falling short on electoral votes that "will" determine this election.
I have satellite radio and listen often to Howard stern. They sent one of their guys into Harlem where all voters are mostly Obama supporters. They wanted to interview the black community on Obama using McCain policies to see their reaction; the results are as follows.
They asked the first person who they supported in the election, McCain or Obama. Of course the reply was I support Obama. They were then asked do you agree with Obama on staying in Iraq for however long it takes to win the war (McCain’s actual policy) the reply was yes I do. They then asked another Obama supporter if they support Obama on being pro-life and in non support of stem-cell research (McCain’s policy) they replied yes I am for pro life and also against stem cell research. They asked a third black young lady what she thought of the McCain Obama debate. She replied that McCain came off as uneducated and Obama very prepared. They then asked her if Obama made a wise choice of picking Palin as a running mate. She replied absolutely! If Obama thinks Palin will make a good vice she stands behind Obama and palin 100%. By the way, all people interviewed in Harlem were asked if Obama made a wise choice with Obama picking Palin as a running mate, they all replied yes. The last question was what do you all think about McCain picking Biden as a VP? They all replied, I don’t like the idea of McCain’s pick of Biden for VP on his ticket, he is inexperienced this is no joke! Only in America, These are who we will be voting with, I hope you feel better now.
