Hacksaw's Blog

Iraqi militia leader to order followers to lay down their arms

· Mahdi army will become social and political group
· Sadr's forces waged war on US troops for last five year

Wednesday August 6 2008

Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Photograph: Wissam al-Okaili/AFP/Getty Images

The leader of one of the most powerful militias in Iraq, Moqtada al-Sadr, is to order his followers to disarm and transform themselves into a purely social and political organisation, according to a new strategy document published yesterday.

Such a shift would mark a significant step forward for US and Iraqi government attempts to pacify Iraq.

Sadr's Mahdi army, committed to forcing US troops out of Iraq, has been behind much of the violence since the 2003 invasion. His forces have maintained a ceasefire since May.

According to the document, a copy of which has been obtained by the Wall Street Journal and whose authenticity has been confirmed by a Mahdi army spokesman, Sheikh Salah al-Obeidi, the militia will concentrate in future on education, provision of social services and religion.

It tells Sadr's followers that "it is not allowed to use arms at all". Posters have been spotted around Baghdad saying the changes will be announced at Friday prayers.

Sadr's shift comes after a crackdown by Iraqi forces on the Mahdi army in its Baghdad stronghold, Sadr City, as well as Amarrah and Basra in the south earlier this year.

US military and diplomatic sources yesterday welcomed the prospect of the Mahdi army laying down its arms, but expressed strong scepticism, given previous statements by Sadr that were followed by renewed outbursts of violence.

Despite the US caution, the document is consistent with recent statements by Sadr, who was in Iran earlier this year pursuing religious studies. He appears to be readying himself for elections scheduled for October, though the failure of Iraqi parliamentarians to reach a deal yesterday could push that into next year.

The new document is in line with a statement from Sadr last week in which he called for the Iraqi government not to enter into any deals with the US government, which he continued to refer to as "the occupier". But significantly he called for peaceful resistance to the US forces.

The Mahdi army, a predominantly Shia Muslim grouping, and al-Qaida in Iraq have been two of the biggest forces behind much of the violence of the last five years. The Pentagon claims that it has al-Qaida, an almost exclusively Sunni Muslim organisation responsible for some of the worst atrocities, on the run.

There has been a reduction in violence in Iraq over the last year and the US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, has hinted he will recommend to President George Bush later this month or early next a reduction in the 156,000 US troops based in Iraq and supply bases in Kuwait.

The Mahdi army spokesman, Obeidi, told the Wall Street Journal that the group would now be guided by spirituality rather than battling US forces. The document says the aim is promoting virtue and preventing vice through words and moral behaviour. But some hardliners in the Mahdi army may ignore Sadr's call, as they have in the past when he called short-lived ceasefires.

Sadr, 34, one of the most influential Shia leaders in Iraq, rose to prominence after the fall of Saddam Hussein. He came from one of the most important religious families in the forefront of resistance to Saddam and which suffered at his hands.

Amid the chaos of post-invasion Iraq, Sadr's militia seized control of Sadr City and other Shia areas and established security as well as a basic welfare network. His forces have since repeatedly engaged US and British troops in open battle.

British forces have been less involved since handing over Basra city to Iraqi forces and holing up at Basra international airport.

The Ministry of Defence denied a report in yesterday's Times that the 4,000 troops had stood by for a week in March while Iraqi and US troops clashed with the Mahdi army because they had a secret deal with Sadr.

The British military and diplomats, while responsible for southern Iraq, did enter into a series of deals in places such as Amarrah, while publicly denying it. They allowed militia groups a degree of control. But the MoD insisted yesterday that British forces in March had provided a "raft of support" to US and Iraqi forces during the March fighting.

In a separate development, Ron Suskind, a US journalist, claimed yesterday that the White House had faked a letter purporting to establish a link between Saddam and al-Qaida in the run-up to the war. The letter, published in the Daily Telegraph, was supposedly written by Tahir Jalil Habbush al-Tikriti, director of Iraqi intelligence, in 2001.

The allegation is made in Suskind's new book, The Way of the World. The then acting head of the CIA, George Tenet, said he had no memory of such a letter.

Hmmm, I wonder if he would’ve ever arrived at this decision had our troop surge that Senator McCain fought for and that provided much needed security in Iraq not ever occurred, or failed to succeed like Senator Obama and other critics predicted that it would….

I think not!

The smart money says that al-Sadr would never have backed down or disarmed his militia if not for the Iraqi military backed up by our forces putting a ton of heat on and defeating his Mahdi army in battle….